On four of the last six days till Friday, Delhi’s air quality early warning system (EWS) — which utilises “different satellite data sets” and is “based on state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry transport models” — has made incorrect predictions. On October 13, for instance, it predicted the air would be at “moderate” level, but the air quality index (AQI) was well into “poor”. The following day, when it forecast an improvement, it became worse, with the AQI deteriorating further into the poor zone.
This is not new.
In 2023, when the city had its first “severe” air pollution day (the AQI shot past the dismaying 400 figure) on November 2, the EWS missed the signs by a wide six-day margin — at the time, it predicted the AQI would not slip into the deep red zone till November 9.
Launched in October 2018 to provide air quality warnings up to 10 days in advance, the EWS has had a worrying track record, leaving citizens uninformed about when they should take precautions to cope with the annual public health crisis, and authorities unable to announce curbs that could prevent some of the deterioration or at least allow them to respond faster to the conditions.
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